Utility-Scale PV Resource Classes Resource ClassĭOE’s Solar Energy Technologies Office sets its PV cost targets for a location centered geographically within the continental U.S., in resource class 7, whereas the ATB benchmark is class 5, representing the national-average solar resource. The following table summarizes the estimated 2019 capacity factors (in the first year of operation) per resource category and each resource category's associated U.S. The map below shows average annual GHI in the United States. The county estimated land area is provided by geospatial and tabular data from the U.S. average capacity factor for each resource category is weighted by the land area (square miles) of each county within the GHI resource category. The county-level mean GHI is calculated by aggregating each individual NSRDB point’s multiyear mean GHI to provide a county’s mean GHI for all years included in the analysis. The NSRDB provides modeled spatiotemporal solar irradiance resource data at 4-km spatial and 0.5-hour temporal resolution. Average capacity factors are calculated using county-level capacity factor averages from the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model for 1998–2019 (inclusive) of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The ATB provides the average capacity factor for 10 resource categories in the United States, binned by mean GHI. Advanced Technology Innovation Scenario (Advanced Scenario): an increase in R&D spending that generates substantial innovation, allowing historical rates of development to continue.Ī detailed description of the scenarios is below.Moderate Technology Innovation Scenario (Moderate Scenario): R&D investment continuing at similar levels as today, with current industry technology road maps achieved, but no substantial innovations or new technologies introduced to the market.Conservative Technology Innovation Scenario (Conservative Scenario): lower levels of R&D investment with minimal technology advancement and current global module pricing.

The three scenarios for technology innovation are: Future year projections are derived from bottom-up benchmarking of PV CAPEX and bottom-up engineering analysis of O&M costs. The 2021 ATB presents capacity factor estimates that encompass a range associated with advanced, moderate, and conservative technology innovation scenarios across the United States. Capacity factor is estimated for 10 resource classes, binned by mean global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in the United States. The Base Year estimates rely on modeled capital expenditures (CAPEX) and operation and maintenance (O&M) cost estimates benchmarked with industry and historical data. Units using capacity above represent kW AC.Ģ021 ATB data for utility-scale solar photovoltaics (PV) are shown above.

National renewable energy laboratory